As a follow up of the ADOT (Arizona Department of Transportation) forecasting project, we compared the forecasted truck crossing volume to the actual one at Nogales Port of Entry. As of Aprile, 2011, actual crossing data is available up to June, 2010. A comparison chart is shown as below:
2009 to 2010 forecasted volume vs actual volume (Nogales, AZ)
We can tell that the forecasted truck crossing is very close to the actual truck crossing for each month except for May. However, in our study, we have identified that May is the month with most fluctuation. The forecasted year total truck crossing is only 0.4% percent lower than the actual crossing.
The forecast on 2010 tends to under estimate the traffic volume. Further investigation shows that this is caused by the over estimation on exchange rate. We used the forecast of exchange rate from forecast.org, whose prediction on the value of 1 USD in MXN at that time was high than actual ones.
Last updated @ April 11, 2011